News Herald

CQ Politics notes a new Gallup survey found that only 11% of Republicans are Hispanics or blacks or members of other races. That compares with 36% of Democrats who are non-white and 27% of independents.

• Lindsey Graham's protestations aside, it seems clear that there's neither the will nor the numbers to filibuster the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. I'm sure that won't stop Newt and Rush from alienating the rest of the country from the GOP, however.
  


• The president sent a letter to Max Baucus and Edward Kennedy reiterating his support for a public option for what feels like the inevitable health care reform bill that's slowly working its way through Congress. Meanwhile, Ezra Klein helpfully explains the relevance of MedPAC and why it might finally get some teeth, and Greg Sargent documents the Canadian influence.


• It's hard to disagree with the thesis of this Politico piece, that Obama is deliberately poaching GOP moderates for his administration in order to reduce the Republican party down to its core base of Southern supporters.
  


• The right has predictably been freaking out over a New York Times piece that asserts President Obama believes the United States could be "one of the largest Muslim countries in the world." As usual, it helps to read the official transcript in these situations. The jury's still out on whether this is sillier than the latest mutterings coming from Michael Goldfarb.


• Mark Levin, last seen screaming at and berating a woman on the air, has a list of "The World's Most Deranged Bloggers." You'd think it would be a roll call of the Left's most pugnacious but actually it's four conservative pundits who tend to point out that people like Levin are nuts. It's odd to think that Levin, author of a book called "Liberty and Tyranny," apparently knows nothing about either subject, but we'll just call this Jonah Goldberg Syndrome from now on.


• Remainders: Tim Pawlenty suggests he'll do what the Minnesota Supreme Court tells him to do; Dave Weigel watches PajamasTV so you don't have to; and Stephen Colbert edits Newsweek?

--Mori Dinauer

Just last week, Denver Post and Reason.com columnist David Harsanyi asked, "Is The Abortion Debate Changing?" Based on a recent Gallup Poll, which found that a majority of Americans considered themselves "pro-life" for the first time since the question started being asked in 1995, Harsanyi suggested "that Americans are getting past the politics and into the morality of the issue" after decades of legalized abortion. And, he argued, the morality of abortion is a lot more complicated than most pro- or anti-abortion slogans let on.

Earlier today, in response to killing of Kansas abortion doctor George Tiller, Jacob Sullum asked why anti-abortion activists rushed to condemn the death of a man who by their own accounts was slaughtering innocents. Jacob understands why the activists might say that, but argues that it's really a tactical response: That they need to distance themselves from murderous extremists.

So what do Reason readers think? Will the killing of George Tiller push more Americans to identify as pro-life? Or will it push voters in the other direction? Does it matter that Tiller was known for doing late-term abortions, which are statistically rare but gruesome?

You go back to that Gallup Poll and one thing sticks out on the basic question of whether abortion should be legal under some circumstances: Since 1976, the percentage answering yes has been around 50 percent or higher (there are a few years where it dipped into the high 40s). That is, it's been pretty stable at or around a majority number.

And the percentage of people saying abortion should be illegal under all circumstances has rarely cracked the 20 percent figure (though it has again in recent years). Similarly, the percentage saying abortion should be legal under all circumstances, which peaked at 34 percent in the early 1990s, has always been a minority position (which currently stands at 22 percent and has been dropping lately).

I suspect that as abortion becomes rarer (as Reason's Ron Bailey pointed out in 2006, abortion has been getting rarer since the 1990s and also occurs earlier in pregnancies than before), it's quite possible that the either/or positions might change, but that their movement will have little effect on the middle position of abortion staying legal under some circumstances. Even those, such as Harsanyi, who is plainly troubled by the logic of abortion, generally concede that prohibition would cause more problems than it would fix ("I also believe a government ban on abortion would only criminalize the procedure and do little to mitigate the number of abortions.").

Back in 2003, on the occasion of Roe v. Wade's 30th anniversary, I argued that regarding abortion the country had reached a consensus that

has little to do with morality per se, much less with enforcing a single standard of morality. It's about a workable, pragmatic compromise that allows people to live their lives on their own terms and peaceably argue for their point of view....

This isn't to say that the debate about abortion is "over"-or that laws governing the specifics of abortion won't continue to change over time in ways that bother ardent pro-lifers and pro-choicers alike. But taking a longer view, it does seem as if the extremes of the abortion debate - extremes that included incendiary language (including calls for the murder of abortion providers) - have largely subsided in the wake of a widely accepted consensus. Part of this is surely due to the massive increases in reproduction technologies that allow women far more control over all aspects of their bodies (even as some of those technologies challenge conventional definitions of human life).

That isn't an outcome that is particularly satisfying to activists on either side of the issue or to people who want something approaching rational analysis in public policy. But it's still where we're at and it's unlikely the Tiller case will do much to move things one way or the other. The one thing that would likely change it would be if there was a massive shift toward later-term abortions, which seems unlikely based on long-term trendlines and technological innovations.

Time is definitely beginning to slip away.  According to a new report from Israeli military intelligence, Iran has sped up its nuclear development and may have enough nuclear fuel to produce a bomb by the end of this year.

Iran already has a delivery system The Seji-2 missile, a two-stage missile, with a 2,000-kilometer range missile which is powered by solid fuel:

President Obama has said that he wants to give his "out reach" to the Iranian despot at least until the end of the year. It looks as if Ahmadinejad is racing ahead to make that deadline moot:

 Military Intelligence: Countdown to Iranian Nuke Bomb

by Hana Levi Julian

(IsraelNN.com) The head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division informed the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Monday that Iran is only one year away from obtaining enough material for a nuclear weapon..

"By the end of the year, Iran may have enough fissile material for their first nuclear bomb," Brigadier-General Yossi Beiditz told the committee during the briefing. He added that Iran is developing its nuclear weaponry at a faster pace than before and that negotiations are unable to halt the process.

"Iran is extremely troubling due to its speed," he said. "It has missiles which can reach Israel. The Iranian clock precedes the international diplomacy clock." He added that for the time being, "The United States is determined to pursue diplomacy" with the Islamic Republic.

The information was not news to IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, who had already warned the same committee a week earlier that he was preparing for any possibility.

"Iran continues with its plans," he told the MKs. "Its possession of nuclear weapons could destablize the entire Middle East. There is dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, with the prospects for success doubtful. For us as well, [diplomacy] would be the preferred way to stop [Iran's nuclear development] project. But as the chief of staff, I have to be prepared for any eventuality, and so this is what we are doing,"

While Western military and intelligence officials debated whether Iran has the capability to produce a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile, the Islamic Republic surprised the world last month by launching precisely such a weapon.

The Seji-2 missile, a two-stage missile, reached its intended target, according to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The 2,000-kilometer range missile is powered by solid fuel, and is reported to be a more advanced weapon than the country?"s previous Shihab missile series.

Beiditz told the committee that Hamas is continuing to successfully smuggle arms into Gaza, adding that Palestinian Authority Chairman and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is expecting U.S. President Barack Obama to pressure Israel into making more security concessions.

He also warned that the Hizbullah terrorist group remains a threat to Israel's north as well. "Hizbullah has deployed north and south of the Litani with missiles that can reach deep into Israel," he said.

Its deployment is a direct violation of United Nations Resolution 1701, the ceasefire agreement which ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War.The Litani River, located 12 miles from the Israel's northern border, was to be a marker point below which Hizbullah terrorists were not allowed to re-group.

The U.N. Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were deployed in a buffer zone that was to be free of "any armed personnel" -- both Hizbullah terrorists and IDF soldiers -- between the river and the U.N.-drawn Blue Line in the southern sector of the country. The agreement also calls for "no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its governPlease email me at yidwithlid@aol.com to be put onto my mailing list.

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The NH House and Senate today approved a bill that would allow gay marriage in the Granite State, making it the sixth nationally to back such an initiative. The final vote in the House was 198-176; the state Senate earlier approved the proposal along party lines, 14-10.

Gov. John Lynch (D) has said he would sign the legislation, which was revised at his request to include greater protections for religious groups and officials unwilling to marry gays or lesbians.

NH joins CT, IA, MA, VT and ME.

NDN has been a leader in advocating for fixing our broken immigration system. As President Barack Obama and Administration officials gear up for their June 8 meeting with Members of Congress regarding comprehensive immigration reform, we wanted to make sure that you had the most up to date information on this issue. 

Additionally, NDN President Simon Rosenberg and NDN Hispanic Programs Vice President Andres Ramirez are available for interviews or analysis and debate.

A Brief Overview of Comprehensive Immigration Reform

• What Sotomayor Means for Immigration Reform, by Simon Rosenberg, 5/28/09 - Rosenberg contends that while it is still early in the effort to put Sonia Sotomayor on the Supreme Court, the prospects for passing immigration reform this year will improve if she is confirmed.

• 
  Hispanics Poised To Flex Muscle in Politics, Policy, by Andres Ramirez, Roll Call, 5/18/09 - In this op-ed, Ramirez writes that Hispanics must seize this opportunity by continuing to increase their electoral participation as they have in recent years. This will give them maximum influence over a range of issues.
  


• 
  Making the Case: 7 Reasons Congress Should Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform this Year, Huffington Post, 4/30/09 - Rosenberg argues that the answer to whether Congress can pass reform this year is "yes."
  


• 
  Latinos Vote in 2008: Analysis of U.S. Presidential Exit Polls (PDF), Andres Ramirez, 1/18/09 - Ramirez provides an overview of the Hispanic electorate in key states from the 2008 presidential election. The analysis concludes that Hispanics participated in record numbers in this election cycle, increasing their turnout from the 2004 election;  Hispanics significantly shifted towards the Democratic nominee in 2008, reversing trends from the 2000 and 2004 presidential election cycles; Hispanics played a key role in Obama’s victory in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico; Hispanics are poised to make other states competitive in future elections; and if these trends continue, the national map will continue to get harder for Republicans.
  


• 
  Hispanics Rising II (PDF), 5/30/08 - This important document provides an in-depth narrative of how the immigration issue has impacted American politics and mobilized the Hispanic electorate.
  

Polling on Comprehensive Immigration Reform Shows Consistent Support for Reform

• NDN Polls on Comprehensive Immigration Reform in Battleground States, 9/10/08 - NDN conducted polling in key presidential battleground states, that show overwhelming support for comprehensive immigration reform.

Other Resources

• The 50-Year Strategy (PDF), Simon Rosenberg and Peter Leyden, Mother Jones, November 2007 - Rosenberg and Leyden lay out a grand strategy for how today's Democrats can build a lasting electoral majority and today's progressives could seize the new media, build off new constituencies like Hispanics and the Millennial Generation, and solve the urgent governing challenges of our times. 


• On Obama, Race, and the End of the Southern Strategy, Simon Rosenberg, 1/4/08 and 11/6/08 - Rosenberg writes that for progressives to succeed in the coming century, they must build a new majority coalition very different from the one FDR built in the 20th century. The nation has changed a great deal since the mid-20th century, as we’ve become more Southern and Western, suburban and exurban, Hispanic and Asian, immigrant and Spanish-speaking, more millennial and aging boomer and more digital age in our life and work habits than industrial age. Twent-first century progressive success would require building our politics around these new demographic realities.